California: Antibody Test Results Suggest COVID Death Rate Significantly Lower Than Reported
Antibody research indicates that the coronavirus may be far more widespread than previously known.
“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health,” Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study, said in an interview with ABC News’ Diane Sawyer.
Highly anticipated antibody testing results out of Santa Clara County in California headed by a Stanford University professor were released on Friday, showing that the estimated number of positive novel coronavirus cases is likely 50-80 times higher than reported, thus significantly dropping the estimated fatality rate.
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The study, the first large-scale community antibody testing in the nation and led by Dr. Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University, found that 2.5 to 4.2% of the 3330 subjects tested were found to have COVID-19 antibodies.
The population prevalence of the virus in the county ranged from 2.49-4.16%, the researchers found.
“These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases,” the study’s abstract explained.
“The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases,” according to the researchers. If the number of the recovered cases are similarly undercounted across the nation, the fatality rate would accordingly be overstated. More
If these percentages are true nationwide, then we’ve had somewhere between 8 and 13 million people exposed, not 600,000. That makes the fatality rate somewhere between .26 and .44% and that’s assuming that the number of deaths isn’t inflated.
Exactly! The infected vs death percentage is off probably by a minimum of 50% everywhere, not just California.
— Lala (@LauraBass) April 17, 2020